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According to a recent survey (published 7th September 2016)
carried out by the government hikikomori between the ages of 15 and 39 in Japan
are roughly 541’000.
- The survey was carried out on a sample of 5000 families with at least one member between the ages of 15 and 39;
- 34.7% have started their isolation between the ages of 20 and 24, confirming that the most critical period is the one immediately after the end of highschool (I tried to understand the why of it in this post);
- 35% has been in isolation for at least 7 years.
Why it’s an optimistic estimate
First of all because the survey doesn’t take into
consideration hikikomori over the age of 40, a segment of the population which,
according to recent studies, is being increasingly affected (also because of
hikikomori who isolated themselves in their youth and remained such for so long
as to go over the 40 year threshold, that is to say the “first hikikomori
generation”).
Moreover, the Japanese health minister rigidly considers hikikomori only those who haven’t left their home for at least 6 months, don’t
study, and don’t have a job. This excludes anyone who tends strongly towards
social isolation but still maintains some direct contact with the outside
world.
Finally, we need to take into account of what in psychology
is termed “social desirability”. In Japan, having a hikikomori child is
something that’s seen as very shameful by the rest of the family, for this
reason it’s possible that some of those who participated in the study may have
not answered entirely honestly.
How many hikikomori are there, then?
Realistically estimating how many hikikomori there really
are is very difficult to this day, specifically because of the elusive nature
of the phenomenon. Over the last few years various different bodies have
conducted a chain of surveys and the resulting estimates range from 100’000 to
2 million; an excessively wide range to hope to find some realisting common
ground.
Currently in Italy there is talk of around 30’000 cases, but
only a few years ago, in 2013, TG2 (One of the principle Italian news networks)
released a ridiculous estimate, that is to say that there were only 50
hikikomori in our country (not fifty-thousand, fifty!).
In my opinion there’s still a very long road ahead of us to
fully understand what hikikomori is and, consequently, to come up with accurate
estimates on the subject.